BFV Weekly — March 8, 2026: Deep Undervaluation and What the Model Is Saying
Bitcoin is trading at $67,143 — 44.5% below its power-law fair value of $120,920. The BFV Score sits at 1/100, placing today in the bottom 1% of all historical valuations since 2011. This edition examines what the model is signaling, how current conditions compare to prior cycle lows, and what historically happens when BTC enters this zone.
The Signal This Week
The Bitcoin Fair Value model is issuing one of its strongest historical signals. As of March 8, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $67,143 against a power-law fair value of $120,920 — a deviation of −44.5%. The BFV Score of 1 out of 100 means that, across every trading day in the model's 10-year dataset (3,653 data points), Bitcoin has been cheaper relative to its modeled fair value on fewer than 1% of all days.
To put that in plain terms: the model has rarely, if ever, seen Bitcoin this undervalued.
Understanding the Power-Law Model
The BFV model fits
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